Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
