Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
